Thursday, November 13, 2008

So it's finally here

The verdict is in: yes, we are in a recession. As if most of us didn't already know this, but jobless claims surged to its highest level since 1992. 

Given the fact that B's company has been laying off employees at various properties around the country left and right, this comes as no surprise. 

B's CEO sent out a memo yesterday that established a moratorium on any raises for 2009. No bonuses, no raises. The CEO himself took a 20% pay cut. Thankfully B's job does not seem to be going anywhere. No matter how dire the conditions, unless the company just outright folds, they will always need someone to do the financial reporting. So that's good. What's even better: he still has a job. So hopefully we can hold on until the storm passes.

This leads me to considering the pros and cons of a recession. Yes, there are pros, if you can manage to survive through it.

Pros:
1. Everything goes on sale. Stores that are forced to clear out their inventory are also forced to reduce their prices to the appropriate price point, which can sometimes mean giving things away almost for free. 

Case in point: Old Navy just had a sale where they were literally selling their scarves and hats for $1. Need a scarf or hat? Well, no, I don't, not personally, but I'm sure many who are struggling are happy to have such a price. When you factor in cost to produce and transport, ON is barely making anything on those hats and scarves. But if you happen to have money to shop: SCORE!

2. Hm....well, what's number 2? Oh, okay, energy prices are going down. They aren't going down for good reasons. Prices are declining because even though OPEC decreased its production, there is still a surplus of oil available due to weak demand around the world. So, if you wanted to go on a road trip, now is the time to do it. Do you have your passport ready, if you still have a job?

3. Traveling will hopefully get cheaper. I don't have any proof to back up this theory, but business who want to just have customers will be forced to lower prices. There are businesses who will keep their prices arbitrarily inflated, but the companies who fail to reduce their prices will suffer more than those who react accordingly. 

In essence, if you are still fortunate to have an income, then these are the things to be happy about: sales!

I could list out the cons, but don't we pretty much know what they are? Job losses, increased health care costs because of people losing health insurance when they lose jobs, rising foreclosures, fewer available loans to help those who need to get by, etc. It's depressing. But these are not things we need to dwell on.

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